Will Israel Start WWIII?

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

So I was reading some conspiracy website stuff today and the people there seem to think Israel is going to start WWIII, or at the very least they're going to nuke Iran and possibly Turkey?   I read an article that said they're moving 3 submarines with nukes capable of destroy Iran into the gulf.  

whoop dee do right? but then I was thinking North Korea is pulling the whose got the bigger dick contest with South Korea.

Now here's the question, I watched a recent clip of Noam Chomsky on youtube talking about Iran and how they want nukes, or at the very least a single nuke.  as in 1 nuke.  He went on to say how it wouldn't really be that big of a deal considering we have over 5,000.  

Would letting Iran build a nuke make the world more unsafe than it already is?  between us and russia can't we blow up the world like a 100times over or something?  Maybe we should just give Iran a nuke, North Korea supposedly has one but its a fizzly little dick of a nuke.  

Do we have to throw Russia into the mix when it comes to nuclear arms trading?  They probably want to sell the shit out some bombs.  As the days go by it seems more inevitable that somebody, most likely in the middle east is going to get nuked within in our life time.  Will Israel be the trigger man?  

enlighten me on middle eastern policies and shit, I want to prepare.  build a nuke proof bunker, get some rice, etc.  maybe I'll build some tunnels under my house, secret tunnels would be so awesome.

[johnnYYac]

This looks nice.  Might be hard raising the $10 mill, though.  

http://visboo.com/modern-bomb-shelter.html

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

This looks nice.  Might be hard raising the $10 mill, though.  

http://visboo.com/modern-bomb-shelter.html

that's a pretty awesome looking bomb shelter.  It looks quite luxurious. The only think it's missing is a place to store weapons.  When the end times come we'll need weapons and ammo just as much as we need food and water.  It's going to get mid evil if shit goes down.

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

If I'm being an idiot about this enlighten me.  i'm especially curious in what our friends over seas have to say.  there aren't real facts I have to support my theory but if politics are simply a strategy for power should we be worried israel is a cocky bunch of mf's? What about China? are they cool with North Korea? is that why they don't give a fuck what they do? because they're "Bro's" on a global scale?

[el_chode]

I think there's a difference. Between the US and Russia, we have a policy of Mutually Assured Destruction with our thousands of nukes. Ours are also part of recently reinforced treaties to reduce our stockpiles, especially since many of them are old. Will we ever disarm? No, not so long as other nations have it.

The difference is that for both the US and Russia, the presumption is that a nuclear strike is imminent in one of two situations: an unprecedented nuclear assault that is the stuff of 60's paranoia or, more likely, a retaliatory strike against another aggressor (nuclear or not). And even so, the MAD policy ensures that it is only done as a measure of last resort.

Iran or NKorea on the other hand cannot engage in a MAD policy. They don't have the power, or even if they have a bomb, they don't have the technological reliability to actually execute it. NKorea can't even launch a normal missile properly.

The danger lies in the situation you described - Israel moves on Iran, or Iran moves on Israel - regardless, we have treaties and pacts that other nations don't. The odds of the US or Russia using their nukes in a naked affront to one another are minimal. The odds of US or Russia using their nukes resulting from a conflict because of sides taken in a dispute started between Israel and Iran is much greater. Same thing with Taiwan - if China moves on Taiwan, what does the US do? And then China?

Then there's the ideological factor. The powers that be in the middle east may easily rationalize "who cares if we die so long as we know we wiped Israel/Iran off the map first", where as Moscow or Washington are not likely to employ such excuses in their silly war games.

NKorea also may just be interested in resetting the timeline as if 1953 never happened.

[el_chode]

Also, from what I have read re: China/NKorea is that China will not tolerate the saber-rattling. Simply put, they are a benefactor to NKorea, but a trade partner of SKorea. Money speaks louder.

With the most recent aggression involving the SKorean war ship, China has been a bit more aggressive in their response than the US even.

Then there's this other thing a professor of mine and I were discussing, which is that in the next 50 years, China will dissolve. When he said it I was like "nuh uh, Professor, liar!" and he said "it's true! The seeds have been laid! The quality of life is becoming too disparate between the rural and urbanized areas, and they are demanding freedom of information!"

Whether or not he's right, China may not be able to afford civil unrest in the Korean peninsula. Whenever there is any type of war, there are refugees. China already has a major issue with poverty in its most rural areas, and Korean refugees may upset that delicate balance.

Confucius say: the largest fire may ignite from the tiniest spark

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

thanks for the insight chode, interesting as always.  I'm going to go jam for a bit and let the info soak in.  North Korea seems fucked.  like completely fucked.  hasn't Kim Jong Il convinced most of North Korea he is a God for lack of a better word?  convincing the people of N. Korea that if they even were to touch information that was made by the west they'd burst into flames or go to hell or something?  That dude is off his rocker that's for sure.  luckily like you said they seem to be some punk ass bitches.

Israel/Iran kinda scares me though.  Even if it's paranoia it seems way more likely for the bombs to drop on Iran.  And like you're saying the US/Russia won't be dropping any nukes anytime soon, it seems more likely one of our grouchy allies might jump the gun so to speak.  Of all the shit going on right now Israel scares me the most.  I'm not sure why but they just give me a creepy feeling.  

[el_chode]

North Korea does believe Dear Leader has mystical powers. It's actually crazy creepy, but from what I understand, his father was Zeus and even more respected.

I've always wondered how the "big" powers may end up. I guess part of me wonders whether or not the EU will ever act as a union or not, and that depends largely on whether England will submit to the larger entity, and how Germany fares overall since they seem to be the other powerhouse on the continent. Either way, despite our differences, we're all on the same page.

Russia, on the other hand, seems to enjoy being contrarian even though they're not evil. Sort of like Sawyer to our Jack, ya know?

The same discussion with my professor had him naming Mexico and Japan as the nations we'll have the most strained relations with, but he didn't elaborate why.

I think the only way the US/China/Russia would ever come to blows and create a post apocalyptic wasteland would be through a proxy war fought by taking sides in the middle east or some other region. Though, I feel like if such a thing happened, China might be our ally. Here's why:

Russia doesn't play "ideologies" like the rest of the world it seems. They're not in the middle east to take on Islam. China, on the other hand, has been developing some strained relations with Islam in its Western Provinces. As a result, Russia may not have as much of a problem with Iran or Afghanistan in that sense, so they may take their side. And don't forget, China and Russia share some close quarters.

Geographically, I find China fascinating. The weight of the country is on its east coast. When you think of China, you think of that region until you remember they border India, another nuclear state, and Pakistan, and other graveyards for superpowers. It seems like they span so many worlds, ya know? If any instability erupts on that end involving Russia, I can imagine them not wanting to have Russia gain too much power. So either they join the party or try to piss on it.

Europe has a weird relationship with Islam and Judaism as well. On one hand, they seem to condemn anything Israel does and de facto take the other side. On the other hand, Islam in Europe is also the subject of numerous instances of intolerance. In many ways, Islamic (or Turkish from what I read) minorities are like the Mexicans here stateside. I'm sure someone over there can clear that up for me though.

If I were going to worry, lets say something breaks out there, it would only be if someone made a land grab in an attempt to redraw the regional map. I think internationally, no one is ready to engage in any multi-national conflict and the stance seems to be to try and piss on any fire before it gets out of hand. We're not looking at an invading force looking to expand like we had in WWI/WWII where nationalism and imperialism accompanied ethnic tensions.

Then again, the world is a different place now, where that might not be what precipitates such conflicts. I think that's why the US involvement in the Middle East was so controversial - it has ended up in attempts to redraw political maps and is viewed as imperialistic. An Iranian/Israeli conflict would be more of a pissing war than an attempt to take away land (palestinian isssues notwithstanding)

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

read this article last week, here's an exert:

In the end, comprehension requires knowing Kim's mind. Here are five important aspects of his thinking.

1. He's crazy — like a fox

One CIA consultant psychiatrist has argued that Kim displays "malignant narcissism," a mental illness. Being described abroad as a madman is a positive to the extent it makes him appear more frightening to his enemies. However, the most careful Kim-watchers see that calculations of rational self-interest guide his actions. That's mainly the self-interest of himself and his family, which he unashamedly elevates above the interests of his long-suffering subjects.

2. It's not the economy, stupid

Kim is aware that capitalism provides incentives for economic growth and that his country's state-run economy has failed. He doesn't dare admit this publicly because his subjects would then see that they would be better off under a system like South Korea's, and that all their sacrifices to preserve the separate Northern regime had gone for naught. Head of propaganda before his elevation to top leader, movie buff Kim is a showman at heart. When it comes to providing incentives for desired behavior, he nearly always comes down on the side of circuses, not bread. His chief public relations concern is impressing North Koreans — particularly the military men who shore up his regime. He cares little for the opinions of the rest of the world. Economic sanctions aren't of great concern to him unless they impact his personal finances — at which point he does care, very much.

3. In his nightmares: a bloody end to the dynasty

Kim's great fear is that, like Romanian rulers Nicolae and Elena Ceausescu, he and his family will die at the hands of an enraged populace if the people ever learn of and focus fully on the real reasons for their poverty and hunger. He is determined to continue insulating his people from outside news and ideas. The South's retaliatory decision this week to resume propaganda warfare via broadcasts and balloon drops elicited a prompt threat from Pyongyang to shoot at the facilities involved.

4. He's an unapologetic militarist

With his "military first policy," Kim has put all his eggs in the basket of military confrontation. He needs and wants constant conflict with external enemies to keep his subjects from focusing their disapproval on him and his rule. His existence on the edge takes a toll on his nerves, and he would much prefer to wipe out South Korea once and for all and place his family in secure charge of the entire peninsula if he could do it. That opportunity has yet to present itself. In the meantime he prepares by concentrating on smaller victories — turning North Korea into a nuclear power, for one.

5. He is determined not to accept defeat

Would Kim, if he felt cornered, choose an Armageddon exit, attempting to use his small but growing arsenal of nuclear bombs against cities in South Korea, Japan, the United States? There's a significant chance he would. His late father, President Kim Il Sung, promoted him to the top military rank of marshal in 1992. North Korean soldiers have been told that, shortly afterward, those two and two other top officials had a conversation in which the elder Kim asked what would happen if war broke out and the North lost. "If we lose, I will destroy the world," Kim Jong Il replied. His father applauded those sentiments, saying, "You're definitely talking the way a marshal should talk."

source: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/worldview/100525/kim-jong-il

I heard one of his son's, according to kim jong il himself, is too girlie to lead Korea so he picked his most evil son to take control next or some bs.  I don't want to imagine a child brought up by kim jong il, poor humanity.

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

That point your professor made about Mexico/Japan is curious.  I could see Japan getting cornered by china and what not, but I'd hope India would throw some computer monitors at them or something.  

Mexico seems way different, all I can think of is our rising unemployment rate and people wanting to immigrate in.  but that seems like it has always been an issue.  Unless the Cartel is getting strong and going to take over the government of Mexico eventually.  I think Mexicans would love to sell us drugs to be honest.  I'm cool with that, fuck the cartel though.

yeah I thought turkey hates us because we won't call some genocide over there a genocide.   that's why turkey is a grouch right?  Russia is shady as fuck and I don't really trust their word, it's not worth much if you ask me.  not the russian people but the russian government.  Putin assassinating people and crap, fucked politics over there.

but I suppose our political system is fucked pretty bad also.  instead of assassinating a single person anymore we just go for the whole god damn country.  the Afgan's are tribal people for the most part for christs sakes.  they want us to stay there.  it weirds me out because we're not suppose to nation build I thought?  we can lend aid but I thought we were never suppose to setup civilizations since really it's simply conquering a country through policy now, isn't it?  instead of making them slaves to chains we make them slaves to money.

[el_chode]

The Mexico scenario is the result of immigration/drug tensions as well as our increasing welfare state vs their decreasing need to support as many people.

I emailed the professor, he said he lifted it from this book:

The Next 100 Years

Then there's my favorite part of NKorea: The Hotel of Doom



Ryugyong Hotel

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

The Mexico scenario is the result of immigration/drug tensions as well as our increasing welfare state vs their decreasing need to support as many people.

I emailed the professor, he said he lifted it from this book:

The Next 100 Years

Then there's my favorite part of NKorea: The Hotel of Doom



Ryugyong Hotel

we should blow that thing up, it looks like a prison.

[el_chode]

It's Dear Leader's birthday, so BBC visited NKorea

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8701959.stm?ref=d

[el_chode]

North Korea tugs on superman's cape

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

It's Dear Leader's birthday, so BBC visited NKorea

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8701959.stm?ref=d

Wow they seem cocky.  That other video that you posted above made me kinda of pissed.  Here is my solution to start spreading awareness to North Korea:

Step 1: on North/South Border where the US troops are flood it with fast food restaurants and 1dollar menu stuff.  face it towards north korea and put HUGE screens of people inside eating outside so all the starving people in North Korea can see.

Step 2: Now that the fast food restaurants are open and slammin air drop in free coupons in the impoverished areas so they can get their bellies filled.

Step 3: China needs to fuck them up and take down Kim Jung Il's boner regime.  

Step 4: Get them a clean internet connection so the people can be filled with something other than hatred for the west, more specifically the US.  When that solider threatened the US with a beating I wanted to enlist just to smack his smart ass mouth off his dumb idiot face.  

That country is a time bomb of hassle waiting to explode.  "we've got shitty nukes now!".  In all honesty the people I feel bad for is Japan.  I really hope they don't have to deal with that bullshit again because of N. Korea.

[Erik26]

I'm a physics/science freak and I love to hear the scientific "achievements" that come out of North Korea. There are certain dates in the year where they 'celebrate'...uhhh, I'm going to call it celebrating being bat-shit crazy. On and around these dates they like to announce scientific achievements which are absolutely outlandish. I know it pales in comparison to the potential destruction of the world, but it makes me laugh when they spout off about utter bullshit. ;)

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

North Korea needs to stop pokin the bear:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/24/2936414.htm

[Love Dogg]

All I know is, Israel has the highest resurrection rate in the world.  

[Sticky Icky Green Stuff]

All I know is, Israel has the highest resurrection rate in the world.  

:exclamation :question [smiley=shocked.gif]

[Love Dogg]

All I know is, Israel has the highest resurrection rate in the world.  

:exclamation :question [smiley=shocked.gif]

1   ;)